I still predict “Green Book” will take Best Picture. I do not believe Sasha Stone’s assessment that “Roma” will win due to preferential balloting. Fact of the matter is this; Many in the industry aren’t actually as smitten-ed by “Roma” as film critics are. They respect it, believe it to be a beautifully realized tone-poem about memory and despair, but, otherwise, the film that will win is the film that can strike a chord with the majority. An arthouse, almost plotless, movie about a Mexican Nanny rummaging in an existential crisis in Mexico cannot. Sorry.
Sasha Stone says: “I disagree with Zack Sharf‘s assessment. I think Roma creeps up the ballot out of guilt and obligation and appreciation for craft, even if people don’t love it. I think Roma‘s best chance of winning is actually on a preferential ballot, and yet the Best Picture race remains wide open at this point. The only movies that have won anything so far are Bohemian Rhapsody, Green Book and Black Panther, and none of them have Oscar nominations for Best Director. It’s a really crazy and unpredictable year.”