Ah yes, the question being asked by every awards writer at the moment: after months of “One Battle After Another” sweeping, does Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners” now, suddenly, have a legitimate shot at winning Best Picture?
This sudden reversal in consensus, coming off months of “One Battle After Another” sweeping nearly every award, has to do with “Sinners” having just won the SAG Ensemble prize, not to mention Michael B. Jordan surprising everyone by taking the Best Actor trophy away from supposed front-runner Timothée Chalamet.
This shift toward “Sinners” is also purely a way to inject some much-needed excitement into a dull awards season that desperately needed some drama, some twists and turns—where’s this year’s Sofia Karla Gascon? Not to mention that this has felt like the longest season in ages; we’re still two freaking weeks away from the Oscars actually happening.
Can we just pause for a moment and look at the stats? The SAG Ensemble prize has never dictated or been a solid Oscar precursor for the Best Picture Oscar, with only 16 of the last 30 winners going on to win Best Picture. Recent SAG winners that didn’t go on to win Oscar’s top prize include “Hidden Figures,” “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” “The Trial of the Chicago 7,” “Black Panther,” and “Conclave.”
Whereas, the PGA winner has gone on to win the Oscar 13 of the last 15 times, and the DGA winner 9 of the last 15 times. Winning both DGA and PGA and not winning Best Picture has only happened four times in the last 30 years.
Some people even speculate that the recent BAFTA slurring incident involving “Sinners” stars Michael B. Jordan and Delroy Lindo could have earned the film more Oscar votes. While not entirely impossible, it’s the kind of conspiratorial claim I can’t fully get behind.
That said, the length of this awards season, with Oscar voting having opened only last week, might also have an impact. I can imagine a scenario where voters, having just gone through four months of non-stop wins for “One Battle After Another,” rebel against it—but the real question is how large this contingent will be.
So yes, sure, “Sinners” does have a shot, but right now the odds are still in “One Battle After Another’s” favor. The real twist is that it’s a closer race than many of us expected. In fact, the momentum is suddenly with “Sinners,” and that’s enough to bring some much-needed excitement to what has otherwise been a dull, trudging awards season.