Well, the guaranteed win is clearly gone. Lily Gladstone was said to be the Supporting Actress frontrunner for her wonderful turn in “Killers of the Flower Moon,” but that’s no more.
Gladstone has been submitted as Lead Actress by Apple. A total surprise move on the streamer’s part. I don't know if she'll win, but it's not unreasonable at all to believe that she’d rather be seen as a lead.
This is what I think happened. Apple knew she could win Supporting, but they saw the current Best Actress field of contenders and told themselves, “hey, we can win this.” With good reason. I think Gladstone can pull this off.
This year’s Best Actress category is not that strong. The current crop of contenders has Emma Stone (“Poor Things”), Carey Mulligan (“Maestro”), Margot Robbie (“Barbie”), Sandra Huller (“Anatomy of A Fall”), Annette Benning (“Nyad”) and Natalie Portman (“May December”).
I will admit that Gladstone’s performance in ‘Killers’ is very much a supporting turn, but the film is 206 minutes and she does have a lot of screen time. It helps that her sad-eyed performance as Lily Burkhart is absolutely sublime. In fact, Lily is the emotional center of the story. It makes sense.
If you remember, Universal tried the same tactic last year with Michelle Williams’ ‘Fabelmans’ performance. She was a cinch to win Supporting Actress, but then the studio decided to submit her as Lead. She got nominated, but never had a chance of winning. I believe Gladstone’s odds are much higher than Williams’ were.
So, now that we have that out of the way, what’s the deal with Supporting Actress? Who’s actually going to be nominated? That category is currently a ghost town. Emily Blunt in “Oppenheimer”? Da’vine Joy Randolph in “The Holdovers”? Julianne Moore in “May December”?
There isn’t much to choose from. Maybe “The Color Purple” actress Danielle Brooks, who has been getting strong buzz these last few months, might sneak in there somewhere.
Regardless, Apple has just shaken up the acting race with their Gladstone submission and now countless pundits are scrambling to change their predictions tonight.