Variety’s Clayton Davis has spoken to a few Oscar voters and decided that he’s seen enough, Michelle Williams will get a SUPPORTING actress nomination:
“Based on conversations with voters, I have a theory that the four-time nominated star could be a contender to pop up in supporting actress, rather than lead where she decided to campaign. With a movie about Sammy Fabelman, played by Gabriel LaBelle, some see her as a supporting player. It’ll be interesting to see if this theory becomes a reality if this makes this race even more competitive with Angela Bassett winning the Golden Globe for “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever.”
Wait, wouldn’t the last-minute category switch be a catastrophe for Williams? I'm afraid some voters might try to vote for her in Supporting and others in Lead, which means she might not get enough votes for either. A split in both categories would be terrible for her chances.
As it happens, Gold Derby has now also added Williams as a contender in their Supporting Actress category. She’s also in their Best Actress picks. I mean, how much more confusing can you get?
The fact remains that Universal's decision to have Williams go lead might very well cost her a nomination. She was a cinch to not just get nominated but win for her work in “The Fabelmans.”