Call it the “CODA” effect. Whatever it is, I don’t think Kodi Smit-McPhee (“The Power of the Dog”) can win the Supporting Actor Oscar anymore.
As you’ve surely noticed, the Oscar voting body love themselves a good narrative and there is no better narrative this year than that of deaf actor Troy Kotsur (“CODA”). Before his Oscar nominated turn, the 53-year-old journeyman’s best known film work was a very loose supporting turn as Barnaby in “The Number 23.” Otherwise, his credits mostly consist of guest appearances on TV shows.
Of course, we could all just be underestimating the love the Academy might have for “Belfast” and Ciaran Hinds, but I highly doubt that. The other two nominees, Jesse Plemons (“The Power of the Dog”) and JK Simmons (Being the Ricardos) feel like filler, in a very weak category this year, rather than actual threats to Smit-McPhee and Kotsur.
Kotsur recently won the SAG Supporting Male category. Now, Smit-McPhee, the supposed (former) frontrunner, has major competition on his back. Kotsur might become the first deaf male actor to win an acting Oscar, and only the second deaf Oscar winner in history. McPhee can still win, but he’s now up against a megaton bomb of narrative-making.
It helps that Kotsur’s performance is dramatic and comedic, a real show-stealer. Smit-McPhee’s broodingly innocent and, ultimately, devious turn is the better performance, but that doesn’t seem to matter anymore. Kotsur was barely talked about as not just a winner, but as a potential nominee for most of last year, but the momentum “CODA” has gained these last few months is undeniable. There is something happening with this movie that feels unstoppable.