Now that the dust has settled, I believe it is time to assess who the frontrunners for the six main Oscar categories are. The PGA, DGA and SAG winners (announced later this month) will likely paint a clearer picture for us, but this is a playful exercise to see where we’re currently at.
Best Picture
The top prize, as we speak, on 02/15/21, is predicted to go to Jane Campion’s “The Power of the Dog.” However, as much as I loved the film, something tells me that it hasn’t struck the same chord with voters as it has with critics. A good indicator is its audience scores. A 6.9 on IMDB, 7.0 on a Metacritic and 3.7 on Letterboxd isn’t anything to shout home about. Then again, the film has been a massive success Oscar-wise with nominations in Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Cinematography and Adapted Screenplay. It’s the kind of sweeping intimate narrative that people complain we don’t get enough of anymore at the movies. In a stronger year for movies, it might not even be in the top 3 contenders, but 2021 was weak. And yet, I have this hunch that it might lose to “West Side Story,” or “Belfast.” The PGA will paint a clearer picture, but, for now, it’s the de facto frontrunner.
Winner: “The Power of the Dog”
Possibility: “West Side Story”
Best Director
You’d be a fool not to predict Campion winning. She’s a female director who is long overdue to get the Oscar she wholly deserved for 1993’s “The Piano.” Sure, Spielberg has his supporters, and his direction in “West Side Story” is the kind of swirling tour-de-force that the Academy loves to reward. Maybe Kenneth Branagh can get enough votes for the most personal film of his career (and of this category), but the film has stagnated a bit in recent weeks with not enough critical support to maybe bring it all the way to glory. Branagh will get a slew of middle-aged White male votes and that counts for something with this voting body. As for Paul Thomas Anderson, he is very much the dark horse in this category, with the best narrative going after Campion — he is well-loved all around and due for recognition in this category, if not this year then definitely at some point in the near future.
Winner: Jane Campion (“The Power of the Dog”)
Possibility: Kenneth Branagh (“Belfast”)
Best Actor
Will Smith’s campaigning for “King Richard” has been odd, to say the least, but the momentum he garnered at the fall fests hasn’t necessarily stopped. Hot on his trail is Benedict Cumberbatch (“The Power of the Dog”) who has gained a few steps on Smith since then. This looks like it’ll be a two-way race, one in which even the SAG winner will not necessarily dictate the outcome come Oscar night. But what if Denzel Washington, the clear-cut dark horse here, managed to sneak up on them and earn his third Oscar? It’s possible, even people who were mezzo-mezzo on “The Tragedy of Macbeth” admit that Washington’s performance was a powerhouse. Don’t count him out.
Winner: Will Smith (“King Richard”)
Possibility: Benedict Cumberbatch (“The Power of the Dog”)
Best Actress
Ah yes, the most polarizing category of this year’s Oscars. The pundits over at Gold Derby have Olivia Colman winning her second Oscar (“The Lost Daughter”). What?! I mean, it’s possible, but “The Lost Daughter” polarized voters who have seen it — it’s an almost plotless rumination on motherhood that struck many as a maddening watch. Nicole Kidman is second on GD, but her “Being the Ricardos” performance wouldn’t even crack her ten greatest roles. If you want an Oscar-winning narrative then Jessica Chastain (“The Eyes of Tammy Faye”) and Kristen Stewart (“Spencer”) are it. Chastain is one of the great actresses of the 21st century, but has yet to win a golden trophy, despite two prior nominations. Stewart, who was once the frontrunner and then predicted to not even crack the top 5, snuck in a nomination and rejuvenated her chances. I’m picking Chastain for her flashy role as the eccentric televangelist. Penelope Cruz (“Parallel Mothers”) is the dark horse here.
Winner: Jessica Chastain (“The Eyes of Tammy Faye”)
Possibility: Kristen Stewart (“Spencer”)
Best Supporting Actor
Kodi Smit-McPhee was the revelation in “The Power of the Dog.” He carried the movie on his scrawny shoulders and brought Campion’s vision home. The best and most irresistible narrative here would be Troy Kotsur. A struggling actor for the better part of 20 years, Kotsur stole the show as the comically snarky deaf dad in “CODA.” I’ve had Smit-McPhee winning since I saw ‘Power of the Dog’ in September, but heavy momentum is forming for Kotsur, he might go all the way. Ciaran Hinds (“Belfast) also has a shot at winning, albeit a minimal one. As for the rest of the field: Jesse Plemmons (“The Power of the Dog”) should count himself lucky to be part of the final five, and JK Simmons (Being the Ricardos) was unremarkable in his film.
Winning: Troy Kotsur (“CODA”)
Possibility: Kodi Smit-McPhee (“The Power of the Dog”)
Best Supporting Actress
I find it very strange that Ariana DeBose (“West Side Story”) is being touted as the one to beat in this category. Her work struck me as uneventful, and it’s not even part of the top 3 best performances in “West Side Story” — I far preferred Rachel Zegler, Mike Faist, and Rita Moreno. Will Oscar voters realize that Kirsten Dunst (“The Power of the Dog”) deserves to win this category hands down? I sure hope so. Dunst delivers the best performance of her career. You can feel her character’s mental anguish throughout Campion’s film by purely staring at her weary and anguished eyes. It’s sorrowfully brilliant work on her part.
Winner: Kirsten Dunst (“The Power of the Dog”)
Possibility: Ariana DeBose (“West Side Story”)