Right now, Steven Spielberg’s “West Side Story” is on a real high from the critical acclaim it has been getting. It has an astounding 87 on Metacritic and 96% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes. Most people, including myself, are saying it is one of the 5 or 6 locks for a Best Picture nomination (the others being “Belfast,” “Dune,” “The Power of the Dog,” “King Richard,” and, maybe, “CODA.”
And yet, despite an iconic property, the popular Spielberg and early rave reviews, this coming week-end’s box-office might not be too kind for the film. Adults over the age of 35 in the U.S., especially females, the go-to demo for musicals, remain the most nervous about returning to the multiplex (the emerging omicron variant may not help). [THR]
I spoke to a box-office analyst today who gave me the early projections for “West Side Story” and they seem downright depressing. He’s telling me the musical could make anywhere between $10-15 million over the three-day weekend. That would be an unfortunate miss for the film as it is said to have a budget of around $100 million. Yikes.
As mentioned, the Best Picture locks + the ones closest to a nomination are —
Belfast
The Power of the Dog
King Richard
Dune
West Side Story
CODA
Licorice Pizza
Don’t Look Up
The Last Duel
Tick, Tick … Boom!
Of course, it’s all a matter of opinion. This has been one of the most unpredictable Picture races in years. Just last week, “West Side Story” was thought to be the de facto frontrunner, but a tepid box-office could spell trouble for Spielberg’s musical and bring it down a slot or two. It also doesn’t help that it’s a remake of a beloved film that already won Best Picture in 1962. Rewarding the same movie exactly 50 years apart would be pretty odd, to say the least, and unprecedentedly historic.