What I foresee is a scenario where Shape and Three Billboards x out each other and Get Out takes Best Picture. My dark horse is Phantom Thread, but it's mostly me just dreaming rather than actual concrete data pointing towards PTA's film. Also, the academy membership has drastically changed over the past two years, they keep adding younger, more hip members. To what extent that could shape the race, I don't know. These are new, very exciting times for the Academy, "Shape" is the old-school vote, "Get Out" is the new-school, "Three Billboards" is the I'm-not-sure-what-but-it's-good-pick. A film like "Moonlight" would never, in a million years, win Best Picture or even be nominated pre-#Oscarssowhite. Which isn't a diss towards Barry Jenkins' film, it's just not an old-school "Oscar" movie. Is that a preview of how the Academy will vote for the next 20 years? Who knows.