Hollywood Elsewhere's Jeffrey Wells and I recorded a chat on Sunday morning which was accidentally not recorded, because good ol' Jeff's batteries died about 12 minutes in. However, I elaborated, yet again, that I believe the Best Picture Oscar resides in two films "Get Out," and "Lady Bird." You can also add Guillermo Del Toro's "The Shape of Water" as well, but I just can't see the Academy honoring that kind of film, especially since it lacks the political undertones that have made the industry vibrate the last year or so.
I reiterated the fact that "Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri" will be losing major cred due to backlash articles that have been spreading around the net [Read: Matthew Olson‘s Digg article titled “Expect The ‘Three Billboards’ Backlash To Dominate All Oscars Talk — Here’s Why.” and USA Today's Maeve McDermott “The Growing Racial Backlash Against ‘Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri’.”
As for The Post, I told him "fugghedaboutit," the Oscar-bait movie that has been a staple of Oscar buzz for decades is finished. And, that is why Spielberg's movie never found a way to gain awards traction this season. As Jeff wrote, quoting me "People smelled Oscar-bait calculation from the get-go, and they don’t like the mindset (an “important” story or theme done classy, aimed at 50-plus types, bucks-up stars and screenwriters) and the “game” of it all. The 45-and-unders looked at this well-written, respectably made prestige flick with two boomer superstars (Streep, Hanks) and said, “Where is it written that we all have to stand up and salute Oscar-bait movies like little toy soldiers every fucking November and December?"
I wrote this a few days before the podcast:
"As far as I know, "Three Billboards" is having a severe social media backlash, "The Post" didnt nab a SAG or DGA nod, "Dunkirk" and its lack of emotional resonace is splitting voters and "Call Me By Your Name" is just not lifting off. What does that leave us with? "Lady Bird," "The Shape of Water," and "Get Out." The Academy wants to surely make another political statement. Del Toro's film, although driven by a tremendous female performance, isn't a statement. I thought this was the era where mostly-white, Hollywood ass-kissing, self-congratulatory Oscar winners ("Argo," "The Artist," and "Birdman") couldn't win anymore. The academy membership has also changed, and there will be PLENTY of people voting politically instead of emotionally in the age of Trump"Get Out" vs. "Lady Bird" is what I predict.